What Are the Chances of Marijuana Legalization Under the Trump Era?
As President Donald Trump embarks on his second term, the future of marijuana legalization in the United States hangs in the balance. While Trump has occasionally expressed support for cannabis reform, his administration’s actions and appointments suggest a more complex and cautious approach.MJBizDaily
Trump’s Mixed Signals on Marijuana Policy
During his campaign, Trump voiced support for state-level decisions on marijuana legalization and even endorsed Florida’s recreational cannabis ballot initiative in 2024 . However, since taking office, his administration has taken steps that indicate a more conservative stance. Notably, the White House has stated that marijuana rescheduling is not among its top drug policy priorities for the first year of this term .CNN+3MJBizDaily+3CNN+3ReutersMarijuana Moment+1MJBizDaily+1
Furthermore, Trump’s appointments to key positions have raised concerns among cannabis advocates. His interim DEA chief, Derek Maltz, has previously expressed skepticism about marijuana rescheduling . Additionally, the administration’s pick for the Office of Management and Budget, Russel Vought, has a history of opposing cannabis reform .MJBizDaily+1MJBizDaily+1Reuters
Federal Rescheduling Stalled
The process to reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III substance, initiated under the Biden administration, has encountered delays. A hearing scheduled for January 2025 was canceled amid allegations of improper coordination between the DEA and anti-legalization groups . As a result, the rescheduling effort remains in limbo, with no clear timeline for resolution.Reuters+2MJBizDaily+2MJBizDaily+2Reuters+1MJBizDaily+1MJBizDaily+2Reuters+2MJBizDaily+2
This stagnation has significant implications for the cannabis industry. Without federal rescheduling, marijuana businesses continue to face challenges such as limited access to banking services and restrictive tax codes.
Economic Pressures and Industry Challenges
Recent economic policies have further complicated the landscape for cannabis businesses. New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to increase the cost of cannabis products, as many rely on imported materials from countries like China and Canada . These increased costs may be passed on to consumers, potentially driving some back to the illicit market and squeezing profit margins for legal operators.Reuters
State-Level Movements and Opposition
While federal progress stalls, state-level initiatives continue to shape the cannabis landscape. However, anti-legalization groups have gained traction, successfully campaigning against legalization measures in several states, including a surprising defeat in Florida despite high pre-election support . These groups have shifted their messaging to focus on concerns about corporate interests and public health, influencing voter perceptions and policy decisions.Reuters
Conclusion
The path to marijuana legalization under the Trump administration appears uncertain. While there are indications of support for certain reforms, such as banking access for cannabis businesses, the overall federal stance remains cautious. With key appointments signaling resistance to change and economic policies adding pressure to the industry, significant federal legalization efforts may face continued delays.MJBizDaily+3MJBizDaily+3MJBizDaily+3Reuters
As the situation evolves, stakeholders at all levels will need to navigate a complex and shifting policy environment.
