The Global Cannabis Market in 2026 – Focus on USA & Canada
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Growing yet maturing market. Research reports predict continued growth in legal cannabis. One global market study forecasts the recreational market expanding from about $2.24 billion in 2025 to $3.32 billion by 2030. This is driven by legalization and acceptance, innovation (premium edibles, beverages, vapes), and higher-THC product demand. North America (USA and Canada) remains the largest region. In practice, however, not all markets are booming: oversupply and price competition have led to the first-ever contraction in the U.S. cannabis market. Whitney Economics projects U.S. sales of ~$29.1–29.6 billion in 2025 – down ~3% from $30.1 billion in 2024. That analysis attributes the dip to rampant oversupply (flower and other products), which forced price cuts and thinned margins, driving many businesses out of the market (4,000+ U.S. operators gave up their licenses in the past 18 months).
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Shifts in product mix. Consumers are increasingly choosing non-smoking options. Sales of edibles, vapes, and beverages are rising globally as companies launch new formats. For example, Aurora Cannabis launched novel edibles (Lil’ Bits Sour Grape/Watermelon) and vapes in 2023. Market reports emphasize trends like flavor experiences and controlled-dose products. Regulatory changes also enable higher-dose edibles, especially in Canada, reshaping demand (preliminary data suggest demand is strong for 100 mg packs).
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Regional variations. While North America dominates, other regions are evolving. Europe has patchwork laws (Germany is poised to legalize via clubs and home-grow, though rollout is in 2026), and Asian/Latin American countries are cautiously liberalizing (e.g. Thailand’s 2022 decriminalization, Mexico’s pending legalization). A market forecast notes that international challenges – like trade tariffs on cannabis equipment and cross-border regulations – are driving up costs and favoring local production. These factors mean cannabis products can be pricier outside local markets, slowing global trade.
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Outlook: growth vs. headwinds. Overall, experts see long-term growth (e.g. analysts expect robust multi-year growth into 2030). But near-term the industry faces headwinds of oversupply, price wars, and regulatory pressure. In the U.S., 23 states saw sales declines in 2025 according to Whitney. In Canada, growth continued but at a modest rate (see below). Global legal sales will keep rising as more jurisdictions adopt adult-use laws, but cost controls and market saturation are key challenges.
United States: Industry Status & Policy
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Legal status. Cannabis remains illegal at the federal level (Schedule I), though enforcement is lax in legal states. As of early 2026, 24 states (plus D.C.) allow adult-use cannabis and 40 states have medical programs. (All states with legalized cannabis also allow regulated commercial sales, except Virginia and D.C. where sales rules are still being settled.) Because federal law bans cannabis, businesses cannot use normal banking or tax deductions (280E taxes are high). This continues to burden the industry.
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Federal policy update. The Biden administration has taken steps toward reform. In April 2024 DOJ began a rescheduling review, and President Biden signed an executive order in Dec 2025 to expedite reclassification of marijuana to Schedule III. If approved, that would, for example, allow normal tax breaks and banking access. However, not everyone supports this: some Congressional Republicans openly oppose it. (Rep. Andy Harris [R-MD] quipped that it might take “20 years” to reschedule and that “every day it’s not rescheduled is another good day”.) Congress has also introduced (and in some cases passed) bills to protect state programs. For example, House members from Nebraska are pushing to ensure its medical cannabis law can’t be disrupted federally. Overall, federal legalization remains uncertain, prolonging the patchwork environment where state markets must operate without consistent federal rules.
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State-level legalization efforts. Several states saw major cannabis legislation in 2025–2026. Virginia’s legislature gave initial approval to separate House and Senate bills legalizing adult-use sales. (These need reconciliation, and final votes are expected in early 2026.) Virginia also advanced cannabis resentencing bills to expunge old convictions. In New Hampshire, the House approved a bipartisan bill to legalize therapeutic psilocybin (magic mushrooms) for certain patients. Meanwhile, Florida activists are fighting for a 2026 ballot measure to legalize marijuana. After state officials invalidated tens of thousands of petition signatures, the campaign appealed to Florida’s Supreme Court for relief. (In total, roughly 70,000 signatures were tossed due to new voter rules, potentially blocking the initiative.)
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Other state moves. – West Virginia legislators are exploring better use of unused medical cannabis tax funds. A delegate proposed diverting “stranded” medical marijuana revenue back into the program. – Nebraska: Congressional candidates promise to strengthen the state’s medical program by fixing language so federal riders protect it. – Pennsylvania: Business advocates warn lawmakers not to over-tax a future market, noting excessive levies kill legal competition with the black market. – Many states also tweaked regulations: e.g. California held hearings on banning kid-appealing cannabis packaging; Massachusetts considered a licensing freeze to help existing retailers; Ohio and Alabama regulators opened rules for public comment; Michigan updated its monthly compliance reporting; Minnesota launched a statewide cannabis policy listening tour; Nevada and New Hampshire held industry and board meetings (see sources).
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Market performance. The U.S. legal cannabis market has slowed. According to Whitney Economics, after years of double-digit growth, 2025 is the first year-on-year decline, with revenues ~$29.1–29.6 billion (vs. ~$30.1B in 2024). This decline is uneven: newer markets are still growing rapidly (e.g. New York, New Jersey, Minnesota are expected to more than double), but established markets are flat or shrinking. For example, Nevada – long a top destination – saw its licensed sales fall 8.6% in FY 2024–25 (July–June) to about $758 million. Analysts note the drop was due to lower prices (not fewer buyers) and continued illicit-market competition. Clark County (Las Vegas) alone generated $567.6M (down 10%).
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Major markets in decline. Illinois (the 3rd-largest U.S. market) reported its first-ever drop in annual recreational revenue: 2024 saw $1.7B, but 2025 fell ~13% to $1.5B. Interestingly, Illinois dispensaries sold a record volume of products in 2025, but steep price cuts wiped out revenues. The average retail flower price plummeted from ~$17.50/gram in 2020 to $5.72/gram by late 2025. Lower prices have enticed consumers (legal sales are stable or rising in volume), but business profitability is squeezed. (Many retailers complain about punishing tax rates – Illinois’ combined state/local taxes can reach ~40% of retail price – which erode the legal market’s competitiveness with illicit and hemp channels.)
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Tax revenues. Despite declines, cannabis taxes are significant. Nevada, for example, still forwarded $96 million to its Education Fund from cannabis excise taxes in FY2024-25 (even on lower sales). Nationwide, legal cannabis tax receipts exceed $25 billion per year (about double alcohol tax revenues) according to industry trackers. States heavily rely on this revenue, even as they debate tax cuts. Some analysts (and recent governors) have called for lowering tax burdens to combat illicit competition and stabilize the industry.
Canada: Industry and Sales in 2026
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Regulatory framework. Canada legalized recreational cannabis in October 2018 under the federal Cannabis Act (Cannabisgesetz). Unlike the U.S., there is no federal prohibition, but cannabis is tightly regulated. Production and sales are controlled by a licensing regime, and provinces set retail models (e.g. open private markets in most provinces vs. government-run stores in Quebec). Typical provinces tax cannabis at both wholesale (10%) and retail (up to 15%) levels, plus GST/HST. (The federal 10% excise tax on products over 10mg THC took effect Nov 2023.) In early 2026 provinces continue to refine rules: for example, Ontario tracks data on store performance, and BC permitted modest new retail licenses (where previously supply was limited).
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Sales growth. The Canadian market is growing, but at a matured pace. Nationwide retail sales were C$5.39 billion in 2024 – about a 4.5% increase over 2023. Early 2025 continued that trend (sales up ~4.3% by October). By year-end 2025, monthly data show the market hit record highs. In December 2025, all-Canada legal sales hit C$503.7 million – 15% above Dec 2024 (and 5% above Nov 2025). This surge made Dec 2025 the strongest month on record.
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Regional variations. Provincial markets diverge. In Dec 2025, every province except Quebec saw month-over-month sales rise (Quebec dipped ~2% from Nov). BC rebounded strongly: after an October 2025 strike closed provincial stores, BC sales jumped ~22% YoY in Dec. Ontario (the largest market) saw a slight YOY drop in Dec (−4%), as did Alberta (−1%) and New Brunswick (−8%). Overall, StatCan’s unadjusted Dec 2025 figure was C$478.6M (up 2% YoY).
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Retail trends. Canadian cannabis retail has shifted from aggressive expansion to strategic discipline. Industry analysts describe 2025 as a “maturity” phase. Retailers are trimming product lines, optimizing inventory, and focusing on best-selling items rather than endless SKUs. Value remains key – consumers trade down on everyday items (flower, gummies) but “trade up” on premium or craft items (solventless concentrates, high-end pre-rolls). The introduction of 100 mg edibles in 2H2025 changed buying habits: customers quickly shifted to larger multi-packs for better value. Many expect this momentum in edible sales to continue into 2026. Overall, retailers emphasize data-driven decisions, localizing assortments, and training budtenders to retain customers.
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Leading players and M&A. The Canadian market is consolidating. Tilray Brands (which merged with Aphria) bought Hexo Corporation for C$56 million in June 2023 to bolster its distribution reach. Aurora Cannabis has focused on product innovation and market share, launching new flavored vapes and edibles. Canopy Growth (Canada’s once-largest LP) remains active in deals: in early 2026 it agreed to acquire MTL Cannabis (a smaller producer) after court approval. These moves aim to create scale and efficiency in a tough market.
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Market performance. Cannabis retailers in Canada see steady sales but slim profits. Sales volume is growing (especially of value products), but competition and regulation keep margins low. Average retail prices have stabilized after years of decline; a new Industrial Product Price Index for cannabis (released Jan 2026) shows producer prices at about 136% of their Jan 2020 baseline. However, legal prices remain higher than illicit ones for many products. Industry insiders note that while the number of legal stores has grown, many are under-capitalized – some never opened despite licenses, and a few smaller operators have exited. Success now favors retailers with loyal customer bases, strong branding, or capital to weather thin margins.
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Tax revenue and challenges. Canada’s legal cannabis taxes continue to rise modestly with sales. For example, the provincial/territorial excise plus federal taxes on C$478.6M in Dec 2025 contributed significant funds to government coffers (detailed breakdowns are published by each province). Still, the overall legal market has struggled to displace the black market. Reports estimate the illicit channel remains a sizable fraction of consumption due to persistently lower prices (especially unregulated vape/edibles). The industry hopes that further regulatory tweaks (like plain packaging or potency-driven taxes) may eventually narrow the black-market gap.
Challenges Facing Cannabis Businesses in 2026
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Regulatory Complexity. Cannabis businesses operate under intense regulation. In the U.S., federal illegality means special rules: companies pay corporate taxes and federal excise taxes without normal deductions (Section 280E). They often can’t use bank loans or credit cards. In Canada, producers face strict licensing, testing and packaging requirements; retailers must comply with each province’s retail law. Regulatory costs (security, compliance staffing, testing labs) are high and growing. For example, some U.S. retailers must install dozens of security cameras and hire 24/7 guards to meet regulations. Every rule change (e.g. new packaging laws, potency limits, hemp THC bans) can disrupt business models.
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High Tax Burden & Pricing Pressures. Legal cannabis is heavily taxed almost everywhere. In Illinois, combined excise/sales taxes often exceed 40% of the retail price, which many retailers blame for pushing customers to cheaper illicit or hemp outlets. Even in Canada, federal (10% excise + GST) and provincial taxes significantly raise costs. Meanwhile, price competition is brutal. An oversupplied market has triggered price wars: flower and vape prices have plummeted in many jurisdictions. Lower prices mean more units sold but less revenue per sale. The result: retailers are selling as much or more product, yet making less money (Illinois saw a $200M revenue drop despite record unit sales). Businesses operate on razor-thin margins.
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Market Saturation & Overcapacity. In the U.S., the number of dispensaries and cultivators grew rapidly during legalization. Now demand has plateaued, creating oversupply in flower and edibles. Whitney Economics found 23 U.S. states had sales declines in 2025, and reported over 4,000 businesses surrendered licenses in 18 months. Canada similarly has thousands of retail stores and dozens of licensed producers; many producers consolidated or halted production as margins fell. This saturation makes new market entry very hard – latecomers struggle to secure shelf space or customers, and small licensees often fail to turn a profit.
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Illicit Competition and Substitutes. The black market remains a major headwind. In Nevada and other states, experts note that illicit weed prices dropped just as legal prices did, so consumers didn’t switch to legal channels – they simply paid less overall. In Canada, despite strong supply, illicit cannabis (and illegally diverted medical product) still account for a large share of usage. In the U.S., recent years saw a proliferation of hemp-derived THC products (delta‑8/9 from hemp) that undercut state-legal businesses. Congress in 2023 voted to ban intoxicating hemp cannabinoids (effective Nov 2024), which should eventually help licensed sellers, but enforcement is challenging.
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Financial Strain. The industry has burned through huge amounts of capital. Early investors and companies expected profits but saw billions of dollars in red ink. Publicly traded multistate operators saw steep losses; for example, Canopy Growth’s stock lost >95% of its value from IPO highs. Many firms are not cash-flow-positive, and debt burdens are heavy. Cannabis companies cannot deduct most business expenses from federal taxes, so their effective tax rates are enormous. Funding is expensive or scarce. As a result, we see more consolidation (big players buying up others cheaply, e.g. Tilray–Hexo, Canopy–MTL) and business closures (e.g. some U.S. dispensaries shut down in 2024/25 for lack of profitability).
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Banking and Payment Issues. In the U.S., federal prohibition means most banks won’t touch cannabis money. Businesses operate on cash or private credit. This raises security risks and limits scale (for example, companies often struggle to pay large suppliers or to do interstate payments). Some U.S. states have created task forces to find banking solutions, but until federal law changes, payment processing remains a patchwork (the SAFE Banking Act is still pending in Congress).
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Changing Consumer Preferences & Social Trends. Consumers are becoming more sophisticated, but regulatory inertia lags. Today’s customers care about branding, quality, and experiences (e.g. cannabis lounges are emerging in MA). Yet many markets still have “one-size-fits-all” regulations (strict THC caps, generic packaging) that don’t match consumer desires. There’s a generational divide: younger users (age 19–30) have very high usage rates (42% reported use in a 2023 NIH survey), but older users are catching up. The industry must cater to both casual and heavy users. Also, social justice is an ongoing issue: communities hit hardest by prohibition often have the least access to the legal market. Some states and municipalities are adjusting licensing rules and allocating tax money to equity programs to address this.
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Tax and Policy Uncertainty. Many cannabis regulations are tied to shifting politics. For example, the U.S. Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act passed the House in 2022 but stalled in the Senate. In 2026, states will hold more ballots (like Oklahoma in Nov 2026 has a rec measure), and Congress may revisit federal reform. Businesses must plan for a range of outcomes: from continued status quo (Schedule I) to full legalization. Similarly, in Canada, future federal/provincial policy (e.g. changes to edibles rules, or possible legalized home grow expansions) could reshape markets.
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Global Trade and Supply Chains. Internationally, companies face export/import barriers. Few countries allow legal cannabis import, so North American producers can’t easily export to, say, Europe (which would require local production under EU regulations). Tariffs on specialty equipment from the U.S./Europe into Canada (or vice versa) can be steep. A 2026 industry report notes that trade relations and tariffs are raising costs and pushing firms to “domesticate” supply chains. On the flip side, this opens opportunities: for example, Canadian growers might supply medical markets abroad, or licensed producers in emerging markets may partner with North American firms for expertise.
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Health & Regulatory Scrutiny. As the industry grows, regulators pay more attention to public health impacts. States like California are investigating cannabis marketing aimed at youth; Illinois is tracking emergency room data on high-THC products. Safety incidents (like “cannabis-induced vomiting” cases) get publicized and can lead to new rules (e.g. potency limits, labeling requirements). Businesses must stay agile to comply with evolving health guidelines.
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Opportunity in Adversity. Despite the challenges, opportunities exist. The market is still expanding into new channels (online sales, delivery, social consumption spots). Entrepreneurs are innovating with brands (premium craft, wellness, novel product formats) to differentiate. Lower prices, ironically, have broadened the consumer base and normalized use. Tax revenues fund research, re-entry programs, and education. If federal legalization eventually arrives (as forecast by December 2025 EO), the industry could see a major boost in financing and mainstream acceptance. Many in the sector are cautiously optimistic that 2026 will see the shakeout of weak players, leaving a healthier, more disciplined market.
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Disclaimer
This article was prepared with the assistance of AI tools, including ChatGPT. Source materials such as current news reports and industry publications were reviewed and synthesized to support the analysis presented.
While efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, the information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, or professional advice. Readers are encouraged to verify details independently, as errors or omissions may occur.